Monday, July 22, 2024

NEW POLL: Māori Party holds the balance of power 

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Labour is up one point to 37 per cent and National is up two points to 37 per cent. ACT is up one point to 10 per cent while the Greens are also up one point to 7 per cent, according to the April Taxpayers’ Union – Curia poll.

The smaller parties were Māori Party 2.9 per cent (+1.5 points), NZ First on 2.6 per cent (-1.6 points), New Conservatives on 1.7 per cent (-0.8 points), Democracy NZ 1.6 per cent (+1.1 points), and TOP on 0.8 per cent (-0.9 points).

Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:

Both Labour and National are down one seat each to 48 and 47, respectively. ACT is also down one seat to 12 while the Greens are up one on nine seats. The Māori Party is up two seats to four.

The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right of 59 seats is down two on last month but remains marginally ahead of the combined total for the Centre-Left of 57 seats (no change).

For the first time since August 2022, the Centre-Right cannot form government on its own and neither bloc has a majority. This means that the Māori Party holds the balance of power.

Chris Hipkins has a net favourability of +28 per cent (-5 points). Both Christopher Luxon (-4 points) and David Seymour are on -6 per cent (-7 points).

Finance Minister Grant Robertson has a net favourability of -8 per cent while Environment Minister, David Parker, has a net favourability of -21 per cent.

Hipkins also now has a negative net favourability rating with National voters of -5 per cent down 18 points from +13 per cent last month.


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